江苏地区夏季高温舒适度模型建立及效果检验
Establishment and Effectiveness Testing of Summer Comfortability Model in Jiangsu
中文摘要：
分析2000—2021年江苏24个站点实测资料，提取气象要素对舒适度影响的主成分，在人体舒度指数（CIHB）的基础上，利用非线性回归法建立了以太阳日总辐射、气温日较差、连续高温日数为主导因子的夏季高温舒适度指数模型，将舒适度指数分级、分类并分析其时空演变特征。结果表明：气象要素对舒适度的影响主要有四大主成分，分别与温度、日照和辐射、湿度及风速有关；各站舒适度模型决定系数R2均在0.800以上，拟合效果较好；2000—2021年舒适度指数时间上呈现波动上升趋势，空间上，沿江苏南地区夏季舒适度指数最高，江淮之间地区其次，而江苏夏季相对舒适区域为淮北地区。
中文关键词：
主成分分析，舒适度模型，模型检验，时空特征
KeyWords：
principal component analysis, comfortability model, model verification, spatio-temporal feature
Abstract：
Based on the analysis of the measured data at 24 stations in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2021, the principal components of the impact of meteorological factors on comfortability are extracted. On the basis of CIHB (Comfort Index of Human Body), a summer high temperature comfortability index model with the daily solar radiation, the daily temperature range and the continuous days of high temperature as the leading factors is established by using nonlinear regression method. The comfortability index is graded and categorized, and its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics are analyzed. The results show that meteorological factors have four main principal components on comfortability, which are related to temperature, sunlight and radiation, humidity, and wind speed; The coefficient of determination R2 of the comfortability model for each station is above 0.800, indicating a good fitting effect; The comfortability index has shown a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2021. The summer comfortability index in the areas along the Yangtze River and in Sunan is the highest. The comfortability index in the areas between the Yangtze River and Huai River ranks the second. The relatively comfortable zone for the summer lies in the areas to the north of Huai River.