锡林浩特地区季节性冻土对气候变化的响应
The Response of Seasonally Frozen Soil in Xilinhot to Climate Change
中文摘要：
为了研究季节性冻土的变化特征及气候变化对冻土的影响，基于锡林浩特国家基准气候站1961—2021年的逐日冻土深度和气象要素观测资料，通过线性倾向估计、相关性检验、M-K突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法，对最大冻土深度的年际、年代际变化规律，季节性冻土冻融日期进行分析，研究影响最大冻土深度变化的气象因子，建立冻土深度多元回归方程。结果表明：最大冻土深度以－1.75 cm/（10 a）的速度变浅；年代际变化呈“V”形分布，20世纪70年代平均冻土深度最深，90年代平均冻土深度最浅，总体为深—浅—深的变化规律；1983—1988年冻土深度有强突变发生；最大冻土深度的主周期为28 a；冻土冻结日期变化趋势不明显，消融日期有提前的趋势；最大冻土深度与年平均气温、平均最低气温、平均40 cm地温均呈极显著负相关，说明气温和40 cm地温是影响季节性冻土深度变化的关键气象因子。通过建立多元回归方程，可以预测锡林浩特地区的冻土深度，为地方修建铁路、埋设取暖管道等与冻土相关的生产生活服务，同时，研究冻土深度的气候变化响应对合理利用气候资源有针对性地开展农牧业生产，促进草原生态可持续发展有重要意义。
中文关键词：
气候变化，季节性冻土，响应，锡林浩特草原区
KeyWords：
climate change, seasonally frozen soil, response, prairie area in Xilinhot
Abstract：
In order to study the change characteristics of seasonally frozen soil and the impact of climate change on frozen soil, daily frozen soil depth and meteorological element data of Xilinhot National Benchmark Climate Station from 1961 to 2021 are used to analyze the interannual and interdecadal variations of maximum frozen soil depth as well as the freezing and thawing date of seasonally frozen soil. Through linear tendency estimation, correlation test, M-K mutation test, and Morlet wavelet analysis, we study the meteorological factors that affect the change of maximum frozen soil depth, and generate a multiple regression equation for frozen soil depth. The results show that the maximum frozen soil depth is shallowing at the speed of ?1.75 cm/(10 a), with the V-shaped distribution of interdecadal variation. The average depth of frozen soil was the deepest in the 1970s, while it was the shallowest in the 1990s, thus showing a deep-shallow-deep variation for the overall distribution trend. Sudden strong changes were identified in frozen soil depth during 1983－1988, with the main cycle of the maximum frozen soil depth as 28 a; The overall change in the freezing date of frozen soil is not significant, while the melting date tends to advance. The maximum frozen soil depth is significantly negatively correlated with the annual average temperature, the average minimum temperature, and the average 40 cm soil temperature, indicating that the temperature and 40 cm soil temperature are the key meteorological factors affecting the change of seasonally frozen soil depth. The formulation of the multiple regression equation can be used to predict the frozen soil depth in Xilinhot so as to provide service for production and livelihood activities related to the frozen soil, such as the construction of local railways and the laying of heating pipelines. Meanwhile, the study of the response of the frozen soil depth to climate change is of great significance to the targeted agricultural and animal husbandry production with appropriate deployment of climate resources and to the promotion of the sustainable development of grassland ecology.