三门峡市烤烟安全移栽期精细化区划及气候变化对其影响研究
Study on the Refined Regionalization and the Impact of Climate Change on the Safe Transplanting Period of Flue-Cured Tobacco in Sanmenxia
中文摘要：
基于三门峡市63个自动气象站气象数据，选取逐日最低气温和平均气温两个气象因子构建本地烤烟安全移栽期区划指标，使用多元线性回归方法，建立区划指标的空间分析模型，结合地理信息系统（GIS）技术得到了网格距为1 km×1 km的精细化安全移栽期区划，同时对烤烟安全移栽期历年变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：三门峡市不同区域烤烟安全移栽期在4月13日—5月10日，其中在4月13—20日、4月下旬、5月上旬3个时段进入烤烟安全移栽期的区域海拔高度分别为200～700 m、500～1000 m、700～1200 m，面积占比分别为12%、41%、38%，5月中旬以后不再适宜烤烟的移栽。三门峡市1981—2021年3—5月平均最低气温和平均气温分别以0.58 ℃/（10 a）和0.54 ℃/（10 a）的速率显著升高，与历年烤烟安全移栽期呈显著负相关，相关系数分别为-0.408和-0.435。气温的上升使得烤烟安全移栽期以2.41 d/（10 a）的速率在显著提前。
中文关键词：
烤烟，移栽期，精细化区划，气候变化
KeyWords：
flue-cured tobacco, transplanting period, refined regionalization, climate change
Abstract：
Based on the observation data from 63 automatic meteorological stations in Sanmenxia, the two meteorological factors of the daily minimum temperature and the daily average temperature are selected to build the zoning indexes for the safe transplanting period of local flue-cured tobacco. A spatial analysis model of the regionalization indicators is established by multiple linear regression methods. And with the help of the geographic information system (GIS) technology, a refined regionalization with a grid distance of 1 km×1 km is generated for the safe transplanting period. In addition, the annual variation characteristics of the safe transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco are analyzed. The results show that: the safe transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco in different areas of Sanmenxia city spans from April 13 to May 10, and the altitude range of the safe transplanting period from April 13 to April 20, late April and early May is 200－700 m, 500－1000 m and 700－1200 m respectively, with the area proportion of 12%, 41%, 41% and 38% respectively. After mid-May, it is no longer suitable for flue-cured tobacco transplanting. From 1981 to 2021, the average minimum temperature and average temperature in Sanmenxia significantly increased at a rate of 0.58 ℃/(10 a) and 0.54 ℃/(10 a), respectively, which evidences strong negative correlation with the safe transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco over the years, and the correlation coefficients were －0.408 and －0.435, respectively. The increase in temperature has made the safe transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco significantly advance at the rate of 2.41 d/(10 a).