气候变化对河南省冬小麦产量影响的定量研究
Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Yield in Henan Province
中文摘要：
以冬小麦为研究对象，基于河南省1979—2018年的气象站点逐日观测数据，结合遥相关因子PDO（太平洋年代际震荡）、ENSO（厄尔尼诺－南方涛动）等，研究河南省冬小麦生育期内降水、气温、日照时数、相对湿度、PDO、ENSO等对冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明：河南省冬小麦生育期降水量、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温都呈上升趋势，日照时数和相对湿度呈下降趋势，其中平均气温和最低气温上升趋势显著，相对湿度下降趋势显著；H-P滤波法分离的气候产量随周期的增加，其周期内波幅在减小；利用残差趋势法分析气候变化和人类活动对冬小麦产量的相对贡献率，分别为30.15%和69.85%。河南省冬小麦产量的波动在减小，气候变化并不是引起冬小麦产量变化的主导因素。
中文关键词：
冬小麦，产量，气候变化，H-P滤波，相对贡献率
KeyWords：
winter wheat, yield, climate change, H-P filter, relative contribution rate
Abstract：
T The daily observation data of meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1979 to 2018 are utilized, together with the teleconnection factors such as PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and ENSO (EI Nino Southern Oscillation), to analyze the impact of precipitation, temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, PDO and ENSO on the winter wheat yield in Henan Province during its growth period. The research results exhibit the upward trend of the precipitation, the average temperature, the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature as well as the downward trend of sunshine hours and relative humidity. Moreover, the average temperature and the minimum temperature have increased significantly, while the relative humidity has decreased dramatically. The climate output separated by the H-P filtering method increases with the increase of the period, and the amplitude of the volatility within the period decreases; the residual trend method is used to analyze the relative contribution rates of climate change and human activities to winter wheat yield, which are 30.15% and 69.85% respectively. The fluctuation of winter wheat yield in Henan Province is lessening, and climate change is not the leading factor causing yield variation of winter wheat.