云解析人工影响天气数值模式的改进、初步试验和展望
Development of a Cloud-Resolvable Weather Modification Model: Model Description, Preliminary Results and Challenges
中文摘要：
基于WRF四维资料同化和预报技术，初步发展了针对我国西北地区云微物理和播云催化技术的云解析人工影响天气模式系统（CR-WMM，Cloud-Resolvable Weather Modification Model）。该模式耦合并改进了中国气象科学院发展的微物理方案（CAMS-MP）和碘化银（AgI）催化方案，并实现基于大涡模拟（LES）模式的飞机、地面烟炉等播撒源及毗邻区域AgI粒子扩散的精细模拟方法。选取降水案例对CR-WMM资料同化功能、CAMS-MP微物理参数化和AgI的催化数值模拟方案进行测试和评估，验证了该系统的资料同化能力、微物理参数化和AgI催化数值模拟方案的可靠性。CR-WMM具备连续同化常规和加密气象观测，特别是针对云微物理过程的新型卫星、云雷达和人工影响天气外场作业飞机和基地的特殊观测能力，能生成全面、精确的云和降水热力、动力和微物理分析场，支撑云和降水过程及云催化技术的理论研究及优化人工播云方案辅助决策。并提出为达到这一目标，CR-WMM模式在未来5—10年应集中攻克的五个方面的科学难题。
中文关键词：
WRF，云解析模式，四维资料同化，CAMS微物理方案，大涡模拟，人工影响天气
KeyWords：
WRF, cloud-resolvable model, 4D data assimilation, CAMS-MP, LES, weather modification
Abstract：
Based on WRF four-dimensional data assimilation and forecast (WRF-FDDA), a cloud-resolving weather modification model (CR-WMM) is developed for modeling and forecasting cloud microphysical and cloud-seeding processes in Northwest
China. The microphysical parameterization (CAMS-MP) and the silver iodide (AgI) cloud-seeding schemes, developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, are transplanted into CR-WMM. The model permits simultaneously nested-grid LES (Large-Eddy Simulation) simulation of transportation and dispersion of AgI particles released from aircrafts or ground burner stoves. Precipitation cases are simulated to evaluate the data assimilation, CAMS-MP and AgI nucleation scheme in CR-WMM and the result demonstrated the general reliability of these components. CR-WMM is been developed for continuously assimilating diverse observational datasets, including conventional and intensive ground and upper-air meteorological observations, satellite cloud observations, and special cloud-radar and aircraft in-situ observations during weather modification operations as well. The system produces integrated analysis of thermodynamic, dynamic and microphysical analysis fields of cloud and precipitation processes, which can be used to support cloud and weather modification theoretical studies and field cloud-seeding operations. Finally, several challenges with the CR-WMM developments are identified, which should be addressed in the next 5.10 years.