平流层大气质量环流脉冲事件与北半球冬季大陆尺度寒潮低温的次季节尺度预测
Potential Use of Stratospheric Meridional Mass Circulation Signals in the Sub-Seasonal Forecasts of Continental-Scale Cold Events in NH Winter
中文摘要：
次季节预测是无缝隙天气预报气候预测业务的重要环节和难点所在，丰富次季节尺度预报因子、提高次季节尺度预测水平对防灾减灾工作的决策部署具有重要意义和显著价值。本文着重介绍了北半球冬季大陆尺度寒潮低温事件的次季节尺度预测新因子——平流层大气质量环流脉冲事件。平流层大气质量环流脉冲指数具有一定的次季节尺度可预测性，与逐个大范围极端温度事件存在物理联系，实时计算可行，可搭建以平流层大气质量环流变率为基础、以北半球中纬度地区冬季低温灾害次季节尺度预测为目标的动力－统计预测模型。
中文关键词：
平流层，寒潮低温，次季节预测
KeyWords：
stratosphere, cold air outbreak, sub-seasonal prediction
Abstract：
Sub-seasonal prediction is the central component but the key bottleneck of the seamless forecasting. Exploring more predictability sources and improving the prediction skills at sub-seasonal range can increase our chance to plan ahead and devise an optimal strategy to minimize the adverse impacts of weather disasters on the socioeconomic wellbeing of the modern society. A new predictor for continental-scale cold events in the mid-latitudes, the pulse signals in the stratospheric meridional mass circulation (PULSE), is introduced in this paper. The PULSE event has sub-seasonal predictability, close physical linkage with the temporal-spatial variations of surface air temperature in mid-latitudes, and can be derived from model forecast output directly. Therefore, the PULSEs are used to build a hybrid (dynamical-statistical) paradigm for sub-seasonal forecasts of continental-scale cold events in the mid-latitudes.