改进的暴雨洪水淹没模拟算法及其在淮河流域的应用研究
Improved Rainstorm Flood Simulation Algorithm and Its Application in Huaihe River Basin
中文摘要：
针对气象防灾减灾的迫切需求，以及现有技术环节存在的不足，本文对风险预警和评估中的重要一环——暴雨洪水淹没模拟算法进行了改进，引入前期降水、下垫面特性、降水时空分布变化对暴雨洪水演进的影响，在降水空间插值、降水产流模型参数优化、二维水动力模型本地化、模型耦合及应用等方面开展了系统分析，改进并形成分布式的暴雨洪水淹没动态模拟算法，实现从降水—径流—淹没各环节的有机联系和仿真模拟，并在淮河流域典型地区完成算法的检验和应用分析。结果表明：根据交叉验证结果以Kriging法作为降水空间插值的优选方案。基于下垫面信息实现了SCS模型的参数化，在优化CN 系数、初损率等参数后SCS模型能够较好地反映降水产流关系。根据土地利用类型确定了FloodArea模型的地表糙率系数，通过优化降水输入方式FloodArea模型可以实现更好的仿真效果。以降水产流过程为纽带实现了SCS模型与FloodArea模型的耦合和算法改进，改进后的算法对暴雨洪水淹没模拟效果有显著提升作用，模拟误差缩小约50%。
中文关键词：
产流降水，二维水动力，模型耦合，空间插值，参数优化，灾害风险
KeyWords：
runoff, two-dimensional hydrodynamic, model coupling, spatial interpolation, parameter optimization, disaster risk
Abstract：
In view of the urgent need for meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation as well as the shortcomings of existing technical links, this paper presents an improved rainstorm flood simulation algorithm. The impact of previous precipitation, spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, and the land surface characteristics were introduced in the algorithm. Systematic analysis of precipitation spatial interpolation, parameter optimization of rainfall runoff model, local parameterization of two-dimensional hydrodynamic models, model coupling and applications were carried out. The algorithm can reflect and simulate the linkage of precipitation ?runoff ?inundation, which has been verified and applied in the Huaihe River basin. Results indicate that the spatial patterns of precipitation obtained by different spatial interpolation methods are generally consistent, and the Kriging method is preferred according to the cross-validation results. After optimizing the CN coefficient, initial loss rate and other parameters, the SCS model is able to simulate the relationship between precipitation and runoff. The surface roughness coefficients of the FloodArea model were determined based on land use type. Better simulation can be achieved by optimizing the FloodArea model for precipitation input. The coupling of the SCS model and the FloodArea model are realized by taking the rainfall runoff process as the link. The algorithm has significantly improved the simulation capability of rainstorm flood.