基于陆面水文耦合模型的淮河流域水文模拟与极值分析
Hydrological Simulation and Extremes Analysis over the Huaihe River Basin Based on a Coupled Land Surface Hydrology Model
中文摘要：
陆面水文耦合有助于完整理解区域陆面水循环过程及其反馈作用，揭示极端水旱灾害对气候变化的响应机制。本文利用一个陆面水文耦合模型，结合淮河流域水文站的实测流量资料，首先验证了该模式在淮河流域的适用性；在此基础上开展了连续56 a的长时间数值模拟，考察了模式对淮河流域水文过程及水文极值的模拟能力。基于淮河干流蚌埠站逐月模拟量和实测流量的时间序列，采用Pearson-Ⅲ型分布计算该站不同重现期的设计流量，结果表明两者均能得到较为合理的设计流量，但在极大值区，实测流量的拟合精度比基于模式模拟流量序列得到的结果更优。
中文关键词：
陆面水文耦合模型，水文模拟，流量，极值分析，淮河流域
KeyWords：
coupled land surface hydrology model, hydrological simulation, streamflow, extreme value analysis, the Huaihe River Basin
Abstract：
Coupled land surface hydrology is helpful to understand the land hydrological processes and their feedbacks at regional scale, investigate the response of water disasters to climate change. In this paper, a coupled land surface hydrology model is applied for the hydrological simulation over the Huaihe River Basin, with the model being evaluated firstly using the station observation, and a 56-year long term simulation is then conducted for extreme hydrological event analysis. According to the time series of simulated and observed streamflow at Bengbu Station of the Huaihe River Basin, Pearson-Ⅲ distribution method is used to calculate the designed streamflow values at Bengbu corresponding to five different return periods. The results show that reasonable designed streamflow can be obtained with both the simulated and observed streamflow time series, but for the extremely high values, the fitting accuracy by using observed streamflow is better than the result based on the simulated streamflow series.