淮河流域地表水资源量变化及降水驱动效应分析
Analysis on the Change of Surface Water Resources and the Driving Effect of Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin
中文摘要：
根据全国第三次水资源调查评价工作相关资料，分析了淮河流域地表水资源量与降水的演变特点及相互关系，流域降水和径流量具有汛期集中、季间不均、月极值相差悬殊等特点，整体上地表水资源量变幅相对降水量较小、降水径流关系未发生显著改变。通过淮河梅雨与流域水资源量分析发现，径流量丰枯与梅雨量多少一致性较高。利用逐步回归方法，首次系统分析了淮河上游年径流量与降水强度的对应关系，结果表明日降水量0～10 mm（占年降水量比例最大，为29.7%），产生的径流量占比最小（11.5%）；日降水量30~40 mm（占年降水量比例的10.9%）产生的径流量占比最高（25.4%）。梅雨量的多少决定了水资源量的丰枯。台风降水对淮河流域影响总体上利大于弊，对缓解流域旱情、补充水资源效益显著。为有效地应对台风等强降水带来的洪涝威胁、更好地控制和利用水资源，需加强水文气象耦合应用研究。
中文关键词：
淮河流域，水资源量，梅雨，台风，回归分析
KeyWords：
Huaihe River Basin, water resources, mould rains, typhoon, regression analysis
Abstract：
Based on the data of the third national water resources survey and evaluation, the evolution characteristics and interrelation of surface water resources and precipitation in Huaihe River basin are analyzed. The precipitation and runoff in the basin are characterized by concentrated flood season, seasonal unevenness and great difference in monthly extreme value. Overall, the variation range of surface water resources is relatively small compared with that of precipitation, and the relationship between precipitation and runoff has not changed significantly. According to the analysis of mould rains and water resources in Huaihe River Basin, it is found that the consistency between runoff and mould rains is high. The relationship between annual runoff and precipitation intensity in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River is analyzed for the first time by using stepwise regression method, it is found that: Daily precipitation of 0?10, accounts for the largest proportion of annual precipitation (29.7%), however, it produces only 11.5% of annual runoff. Daily precipitation of 30?40, accounts for the 10.9% of annual precipitation, however, it produces largest proportion of annual runoff (25.4%). The amount of mould rain determines the quantity of water resources. The effect of typhoon precipitation on Huaihe River Basin is more beneficial than harmful, and it can alleviate the drought and supplement water resources. In order to effectively deal with the threat of floods caused by typhoon and other heavy rainfall, and better control and utilization of water resources, it is necessary to strengthen the study of hydrological and meteorological coupling.