台风影响期间文昌航天发射场浅层风预报技术研究
Study of Forecasting Technique of Shallow Layer Wind over Wenchang Space Launch Site Under Typhoon Impact
中文摘要：
利用2015—2017年台风影响文昌航天发射场期间26 d浅层风实况和预报数据，对台风影响过程的24 h浅层风预报能力进行分析，发现平均预报偏差较大。为提高预报技术，利用卡方检验的方法分析台风特点与浅层风预报偏差关系，识别出台风强度、象限和台风与场区的距离三个关键因素；再利用2015—2016年台风影响场区实况数据，通过逐步回归方法建立场区24 h浅层风预报回归方程。建立预报回归方程时发现台风强度、台风象限两项显著性不明显，可将其剔除，台风与场区距离、数值预报风速两项显著性较好。利用2017年实况数据对回归方程进行预报效果检验，结果表明通过建立预报回归方程能减小预报偏差的标准差，从而提高预报准确率。研究结果可以为台风影响场区时的浅层风预报提供定量参考。
中文关键词：
台风，浅层风预报，回归方程
KeyWords：
typhoon, shallow layer wind forecast, regression equation
Abstract：
By comparing the shallow layer wind data and the forecasts of Wenchang Space Launch Site on the 26 days affected by typhoons in 2015-2017, the 24 h shallow layer wind forecast capacities during typhoon affecting processes were analyzed. Results show that the average forecast deviation was large. In order to improve the forecast technique, the study firstly analyzed the relationship between typhoon characteristics and shallow wind forecast deviations by using chi-square test method, which identified three key factors: typhoon intensity, quadrant and the distance between typhoon and the launch site. The regression equation of shallow wind prediction for 24 h at launch site was then established using real time data from 2015 to 2016. It was found out that the distance between typhoon and the launch site and the numerical prediction data are the main factors of the regression forecast equation, while the contribution of typhoon intensity and quadrant can be ignored. The verified result of the regression equation by using the data of 2017 shows that the forecast accuracy rate could be improved by reducing the standard deviation of the forecast deviation. This study could provide a quantitative reference for the shallow wind forecast when typhoon affects the site.