1409号超强台风“威马逊” 对海南橡胶园的风害影响评估
Disaster Assessment of 1409 Super Typhoon “Rammasun” on Rubber Plantation in Hainan Island
中文摘要：
海南是我国主要的天然橡胶产地之一，也是台风频发区。强风直接造成橡胶树叶片破损、落叶、折梢、折枝甚至倾斜、断干、倒伏等机械损伤，台风灾害是海南岛橡胶产业面临的最大自然灾害。以海南橡胶园台风灾害历史数据为基础，选取橡胶园台风灾害评估的静态和动态因子，依据可拓理论建立海南橡胶园台风灾害评估模型。并利用所建立的评估模型对1409号强台风“威马逊”进行了评估，评估结果与实际灾情较一致，说明所建模型是可行和实用的，研究结果可为合理规划海南橡胶园种植、提高防灾减灾决策的时效性提供科学依据。
中文关键词：
海南，台风，灾害，橡胶园
KeyWords：
Hainan Island, typhoon, disaster, rubber plantation
Abstract：
Hainan Island is the largest and most productive base of natural rubber production in China, but it is also the region where typhoon occurred frequently. Strong winds directly cause mechanical damage to rubber tree such as fallen leaves, folding tips, folding branches and even tilt, snapping and falling. Typhoon disaster is the greatest natural disaster for the natural rubber industry in Hainan Island. A typhoon disaster assessment model for Hainan rubber plantation was built based on extension theory and historical data of typhoon disaster by the selection of static and dynamic factors for typhoon disaster assessment in rubber plantation. The disaster evaluation of 1409 super typhoon “Rammasun” was calculated using the proposed evaluation model, and the assessment result was more consistent with the actual disaster situation which indicated that the model was feasible and practical. The result could provide scientific basis for rational planning of planting in Hainan rubber plantation and increase the timeliness of disaster prevention and mitigation.