海南岛热带气旋极端降水的特征及其成因
Characteristics and Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island
中文摘要：
围绕海南岛热带气旋（TC）极端降水的特征及其成因，利用国家气象信息中心提供的海南岛台站日降水数据、上海台风所的TC最佳路径数据集和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据，通过气候统计、天气诊断相结合的方法，探讨了1958— 2013年海南岛TC极端降水的空间分布和时间变化特征，并进一步诊断分析了极端降水产生的可能成因。结果表明，海南岛TC极端降水在西北部出现最多，东南部出现较少。从长期趋势看，无论从TC极端降水量还是从TC极端降水频数， TC极端降水的极端趋势均在增加。充足的西南水汽通量输送是产生TC极端降水的重要条件；当南亚高压和副热带高压相距较近，即南亚高压偏东偏强，副热带高压偏西偏强时，海南岛容易出现TC极端降水事件；在TC路径和低层风场结构的配合下，海南岛地形对极端降水的落区有关键影响。
中文关键词：
海南岛，热带气旋，极端降水
KeyWords：
Hainan Island, tropical cyclone (TC), extreme rainfall events
Abstract：
Focusing on characteristics and causes of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Extreme Rainfall Events (TCERs) over Hainan Island, the spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics and possible causes of TCERs from 1958 to 2013 were investigated through the combination of climate statistics and weather diagnosis using station daily rainfall data over Hainan Island provided by the National Meteorological Information Centre, TC best track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that TCERs over Hainan Island occur frequently in the northwest half, and less in the southeast half. From the long-term trend, regardless of the rainfall amount or the frequency, the extreme trend of TCERs is increasing. Adequate southwest water vapor flux transport is an important condition for generating TCERs. When the distance between the South Asia High (SAH) and the Northwest Pacific Subtropical High (NWPSH) is closer, that is, the SAH is stronger to the east and the NWPSH is stronger to the west, TCERs occur more easily. With the configuration of TC track and low-level wind structure, the topography plays a key role in the TCERs.