中亚区域干湿及极端降水研究综述
A Review of Dry-Wet Climate Change and Extreme Precipitation in Central Asia
中文摘要：
中亚区域是全球最大的非地带性干旱区，是我国天气上游关键区，对中国西北及东部地区的灾害性天气发生和区域气候变化具有重要影响。中亚干湿气候环境表现出明显的“西风模态”特征。在亚轨道时间尺度上，太阳辐射等外部驱动对中亚区域水热变化起主导作用，而在百年－年代际尺度上，内部变率对中亚降水变化更为重要。高、中、低纬系统和中亚低值系统的活跃，共同造就了中亚东部（新疆）降水年代际和年际异常增多。西亚西风急流是联系高、中、低纬环流系统相互作用的纽带。中亚区域干湿变化总体不显著，但进入21世纪后有明显的下降趋势。在现有气象业务观测网和移动观测设备的基础上，在伊犁河谷开展了针对中尺度系统和云微物理特征的强化观测试验，建立规范易用的观测数据共享平台，为进一步研究干旱区极端降水的精细化结构和触发机制提供数据支持。
中文关键词：
中亚，干湿气候，极端降水，暴雨试验
KeyWords：
Central Asia, dry-wet climate, extreme precipitation, rainstorm
Abstract：
Central Asia is the largest non-zonality arid areas in the world, and the regional climate and weather is significantly different with the Europe and East Asia. It is a key region, which is weather upstream in Northwest China and the eastern region of the severe weather, and regional climate change has an important effect. However, the regional climate research in Central Asia is unclearly, especially extreme precipitation. The change of wet-dry climate in Central Asia is different with that of East Asia monsoon region, and it shows obvious characteristics of “westerly mode”. On the suborbital time scale, the external drive, such as solar radiation, plays an important role in the hydrothermal change in Central Asia, while, the internal variability is more important for the precipitation change on the centennial to decadal scale in Central Asia. The interdecadal and interannual precipitation anomalies in Xinjiang are caused by the activity of high, medium and low latitude systems and low value systems in Central Asia. The Western Asia westerly jet is the link that connects the interaction of the high, middle and low latitude circulation systems. The regional dry and wet changes are insignificant on the whole region, but there is an obvious decreasing trend in the 21st century. Based on the existing weather observation network, we conduct the intensive observation experiments of the mesoscale systems and cloud physical characteristics of extreme precipitation in the typical regions in Central Asia, and we also establish a standardized sharing platform, to further study the structure of extreme precipitation and trigger mechanism of extreme precipitation in Central Asia.