高速公路高影响天气风险预报预警技术

High Impact Weather Risk Forecasting and Warning Technology in Highway Meteorological Service

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作者:

  • 曲晓黎 河北省气象服务中心;河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室 石家庄 050021
  • 张娣 河北省气象服务中心 石家庄 050021
  • 郭蕊 河北省气象服务中心 石家庄 050021
  • 杜建华 海南省气象信息中心 海口 570203

中文摘要:

阐述了高速公路高影响天气风险预报预警技术的思路、方法、业务化应用及效益产出,详细介绍了基于“风险普查—风险区划—典型个例灾害评估—建立风险预警和影响预报客观模型”的高速公路高影响天气风险预报预警技术方法。现阶段,为交管部门发布风险预报预警产品十分必要,但是在多源数据融合分析应用等方面还存在诸多薄弱环节, 需进一步深入研究。

中文关键词:

高速公路,风险预报,高影响天气

KeyWords:

highway, risk forecasting, high impact weather

Abstract:

This study introduced technical content and related situation of the project of “High impact weather risk forecasting and warning technology and its application in highway meteorological service” which won the third prize of Hebei Science and Technology Progress Award in 2018. The ideas, methods, operational applications and benefit outputs of highway high impact weather risk forecasting and warning technology were elaborated, and the objective model based on “risk census-risk zoning— typical case disaster assessment—establishing risk early warning and impact forecasting was introduced in details. It was pointed out that it is very necessary and valuable to carry out traffic weather services based on impacts and risks and to issue risk forecasting and warning products for traffic control departments at present, however, there are still many shortcomings in multi-source data fusion, and further research is needed. 

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