茂名气候及其生产力变化与粮食产量关系研究

Analysis on the Relationship Between the Change Trend of Climate, Climate Productivity and Grain Yield in Maoming

作者：

武君广东省茂名市气象局茂名 525000
于晋秋广东省茂名市气象局茂名 525000
黄冬至广东省茂名市气象局茂名 525000

中文摘要：

采用茂名山阁气象站1960—2010年气象资料，对气候因子和气候生产力的变化趋势进行分析。结果表明：气温和降雨量呈递增趋势，日照时数缓慢递减。气候生产力以21.3 kg/（hm²·a）的速度递增，与各气候因子都具有相关性，其中与年平均气温的相关系数达0.99，明显高于其他因子。粮食单产与同期气候生产力变化趋势相同，各气候因子通过对气候生产力的影响间接影响粮食产量。在气候变暖的大背景下，降雨对气候生产力的增幅并不明显，还需要合理利用水资源才能使茂名的气候优势更稳定。

中文关键词：

气候变化，气候生产力，粮食产量，茂名

KeyWords：

climate change, climate productivity, grain yield, Maoming

Abstract：

Based on meteorological data from 1960 to 2010 at Shange Weather Station in Maoming, the change trend of climatic factors and climate productivity of Maoming City was analyzed. Results show that the temperature and rainfall had an increasing trend, but the sunshine hours slowly decreased. Climate productivity of Maoming increased at the rate of 21.3 kg/(hm²·a) was related to the climatic factors. The correlation coefficient with annual average temperature reached 0.99, which was obviously higher than other elements. The change trend of grain yield per unit area was the same as that of climatic productivity in the same period and climatic factors could indirectly affect grain yield by affecting climatic productivity. Under the background of climate warming, the increase of climate productivity caused by rainfall in Maoming was not obvious, so it is necessary to make rational use of water resources in order to make the climatic advantages of Maoming more stable.