1961—2016年汛期东天山北坡不同量级 降水日数时空变化特征
The Different Orders Rainy Days Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of the East Tianshan Mountain North Slope in Rainy Season from 1961 to 2016
中文摘要：
利用东天山北坡5个国家级地面气象站1961—2016年汛期（5—9月）逐日降水资料，采用线性趋势、相关系数、多项式拟合及Mann-Kendall突变方法，探讨不同量级降水日数时空演变特征及与汛期总降水量的关系。结果表明：随着降水量级升高，对应降水日数迅速减小；近56 a总降水日数、中雨日数、大雨日数和暴雨日数均呈增加趋势，其中大雨日数增加趋势最明显，对总降水日数的增加贡献最大，小雨日数呈明显的减小趋势，大雨日数在1991年发生突变，暴雨日数在1980年发生由少到多的突变，其他降水日数表现为下降趋势，但均未发生突变；从不同量级降水日数空间分布可知，除了小雨日数其他量级降水日数都是以木垒为高值中心，逐渐向东西两侧减小，最低值一般出现在伊吾和吉木萨尔；汛期随着降水量级上升，降水日数与汛期总降水量相关系数也不断增大，小雨日数与总降水量相关性最差，与大雨日数相关性最高。
中文关键词：
东天山北坡，降水日数，趋势
KeyWords：
north slope of east Tianshan Mountain, number of precipitation day, trend
Abstract：
Spatiotemporal characteristics of number of precipitation days for different magnitudes and total precipitation during flood season were investigated based on daily precipitation data at 5 national surface weather stations on the north slope of east Tianshan Mountain from 1961 to 2016 (May to September). The results show that with the increase of precipitation magnitudes, the number of precipitation days decreases rapidly. The nearly 56 a total precipitation days, moderate rain days, heavy rain days and rainstorm days of all showed an increasing trend. The increase trend of the number of heavy rain days was the most obvious, which mostly caused the increase of total precipitation days. The number of light rain days showed an obvious decreasing trend. In 1991, the heavy rain days had a sudden change, and in 1980 the heavy rain days had a sudden change. The number of other precipitation days had a downward trend, but no abrupt change occurred. From the spatial distribution of the number of precipitation days of different orders of magnitude, the number of light rain days, the number of precipitation days were all based on the wooden barrier as the high value center decreased to the east and west gradually, and the lowest values were generally found in Yiwu and Jimusar. During flood season, with the increase of precipitation magnitudes, the correlation coefficient increased between the precipitation days and total precipitation. The correlation between the number of light rain days and total precipitation was the worst and the number of heavy rain days was the most obvious.