基于卫星遥感的40年洪湖水面变化及驱动力分析
Driving Forces of Changes to Water Surface Area for Honghu Lake over 40 Years Based on Satellite Remote Sensing Data
中文摘要：
为了定量分析气候变化、人类活动对洪湖的影响，利用20世纪70年代以来的多期Landsat/MSS、TM、ETM+及HJ-CCD卫星数据，提取洪湖主体湖面的水体面积。采用相关分析方法分析洪湖水体面积与降水、降水日数、蒸发等因子的相关性。结果表明，不同年份的洪湖水体面积有较大差异，40年来洪湖水体面积有下降趋势，特别是20世纪10年代中后期面积一直处于低值；洪湖水体面积受降水影响非常明显，降水日数的减少不利于洪湖蓄水；人类活动的增加导致洪湖水体面积减少；气候和人类活动对洪湖水体面积影响系数分别为0.78和0.50，表明气候变化对洪湖水体面积影响大于人类活动，但需要值得注意的是，近年来人类活动呈逐年快速上升趋势，对洪湖水面影响也逐渐加大；20世纪10年代中后期洪湖水体面积低值的主因是降水连续偏少和人类活动加剧。
中文关键词：
洪湖，水体面积，卫星遥感，气候变化，人类活动
KeyWords：
Honghu Lake, water surface area, satellite remote sensing, climate change, human activity
Abstract：
To quantitatively analyse the influence of climate change and human activities on Honghu Lake, the water surface area of Honghu Lake was extracted using multi-temporal remote sensing imagery including Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and HJ-1 CCD from the 1970’s onward. Regression analysis was used to obtain relationships between lake area and precipitation, precipitation days, and evaporation. The results show that there was a relatively large difference in lake area between different years and the area decreased over 40 years, especially in the middle and late 2000’s. The area was influenced by precipitation, and the decreasing number of precipitation days had negative implications for Honghu Lake water levels. Increasing human activity contributed to a reduction of lake area. The regression coefficients of climate and human activities to lake area were 0.78 and 0.50, respectively, which suggests the impact of climate change on the lake area is greater than the impact of human activities. However, the impact of human activities on lake area has gradually increased in recent years. Less precipitation and the expanding influence of human activities are the main causes of the reduced area of Honghu Lake in the middle and late 2000’s.