近60年荆州四季趋变特征及给作物生长影响的对策
Temporal Change and Trend Analysis of the Four Seasons in Jingzhou During the Past 60 Years and the Countermeasures in the Crop Growth
中文摘要：
根据荆州站1955—2017年逐日气温资料，在研究四季长度和起始时间变化特征的基础上，利用Mann-Kendall检验等方法对季节的时间变化趋势进行研究。结果表明，季节长度变化上，荆州夏季季长有极显著的增加趋势（P<0.01），秋、冬两季季长有极显著的缩短趋势（P<0.01）；即夏季以延长为主，秋、冬季主要表现为缩短，而春季季长无明显变化。其中，夏季的延长趋势率最大（0.3725），冬季缩短的趋势率（－0.247）大于秋季缩短趋势率（－0.1559）；季节起始日上，冬、秋两季起始日期有极显著的推后趋势（P<0.01），春、夏季则表现为极显著的提前趋势（P<0.01）。
中文关键词：
Temporal Change and Trend Analysis of the Four Seasons in Jingzhou During the Past 60 Years and the Countermeasures in the Crop Growth
KeyWords：
season, Mann-Kendall test, Jingzhou
Abstract：
According to the daily temperature data, the seasonal duration and beginning date for 1955- 2017 at jingzhou station, the seasonal time change trend was studied by using the Mann-kendall test and other methods. The results show that the growth season in Jingzhou and summer prolonged significantly (P<0.01), while autumn and winter shortened significantly (P<0.01). The spring had no obvious change. The extension rate (0.3725) in summer was the largest one, the shortening rate (－0.247) in winter was greater than that in autumn (－0.1559). The seasonal beginning date delayed significantly in winter and autumn (P<0.01), while spring and summer were ahead of time significantly (P<0.01).