中国强对流天气预报业务发展
Development of Operations on Forecasting Severe Convective Weather in China
中文摘要：
强对流天气具有空间尺度小、生命史短、天气剧烈并极易造成人员伤亡和财产损失的特点。近10年，伴随着国家级强对流专业化预报中心的建设，我国已经建立起包括实时监测、临近预警和短期潜势预报的强对流天气预报业务，初步实现对雷暴、短时强降水、雷暴大风和冰雹的监测预警以及72h内的潜势预报。但对龙卷等小尺度强对流天气尚不具备监测和预警能力。中国气象局正在开展龙卷预警试验，将依赖于对流可分辨数值模式的发展以及高分辨率数值模式预报结果与多源观测资料的综合应用技术发展，建立短时临近无缝隙预报技术，提升致灾性强对流天气的短时临近预警能力和龙卷等小尺度强对流天气的监测能力。
中文关键词：
强对流，预报，监测，预警
KeyWords：
severe convective weather, forecast, monitoring, warning
Abstract：
Severe convective weather characterizes as the small scale, short life cycle, violent weather and easy to cause casualties and property loss. In recent ten years, since the national center for severe convective weather prediction being built, the severe convective weather monitoring, nowcasting and outlook operations, which include the monitoring in real time, warning in 0-2h and prediction in 72 hours for thunderstorm, short-time heavy rainfall, thunderstorm high wind and hail, have been developed, but there is now little capability to monitor and warn the smaller-scale convective weather such as tornado. China Meteorological Administration is launching the tornado warning experiment to enhance the capabilities of monitoring and warning the the disastrously severe convective weather on smaller scale and very short time range like tornado, by developing the seamless-very short range forecasting techniques which relies on the convective-available numerical models and the compositive applications of numerical weather prediction outputs and multiple observation data.