中国太阳总辐射5°×5°格点数据集的建立
Establishment of Grid Datasets for the Total Solar Radiation over China
中文摘要：
选取1961—2015年总辐射观测数据，采用局部薄盘光滑样条插值方法（TPS），得到适合中国地区太阳辐射分布型的曲面拟合模型。基于1961—2015年总辐射的格点数据，通过平均偏差、平均绝对误差、均方根误差（RMSE）等评估指标全面分析辐射格点数据的误差分布及其季节差异。统计结果表明：1）所用的插值模型对辐射场的插值效果较好，1961年1月—2015年12月总辐射的广义交叉验证值的平方根（RTGCV）主要集中在1.95～6.24 MJ·m-2·d-1；2）格点总辐射数据的插值精度较高。1961—2015年累年平均的总辐射的分析值（插值结果）相对于观测值的平均偏差主要集中在±0.5 MJ·m-2·d-1间，格点分析值相对于实测值的平均偏差为0.0009 MJ·m-2·d-1，均方根误差为0.9710 MJ·m-2·d-1。误差统计量随季节的变化特征较明显，RTGCV、RMSE值在夏季最大、春秋次之、冬季最小。
中文关键词：
中国，太阳总辐射，空间内插，观测数据
KeyWords：
China, spatial interpolation, observation data, total solar radiation
Abstract：
Based on total solar radiation observation data for 1961-2015, we used the Thin Plate Spline (TPS) method to obtain a surface fitting model that is suitable for the distribution of solar radiation in China. Based on the grid data, the error distribution and seasonal variation of radiation grid data are comprehensively analyzed by means of average deviation, average absolute error and root mean square error (RMSE). The results show that: (1) the interpolation model got a good effect in the radiation field for 1961-2015, the square root of the total radiation value of the generalized cross validation (RTGCV) mainly in 1.95~6.24 MJ·m-2·d-1, (2) the interpolation precision is relatively high . The averaged errors of interpolated values for total radiation from that of observations are mainly concentrated in the ±0.5 MJ·m-2·d-1 for 1961-2015, the averaged deviation of the interpolated lattice values from that of the acture values is 0.0009 MJ·m-2·d-1, the RMS error is 0.9710 MJ·m-2·d-1. The variation of error statistics with seasons is obvious. The seasonal variation of the RTGCV and RMSE are obvious, the biggest one is in summer, the second in spring and autumn, and the smallest in winter.