全球常规气象观测资料质量控制研究进展与展望

Quality Control of the Global Conventional Meteorological Observations: Progresses and Prospects

作者：

廖捷国家气象信息中心北京 100081
周自江国家气象信息中心北京 100081

中文摘要：

质量控制是气象观测资料质量管理的重要技术手段，是保障正确可信的气象观测资料进入天气预报等应用系统的前提。重点回顾欧美发达国家常规气象资料质量控制技术的发展历程，以及我国同类技术的发展动态。归纳来看：1）国际上成熟的气象资料质量控制系统严格考虑了质量控制算法的科学性，以及总体或单个检查步骤的误判和漏判情况，并给出其影响评估，从而有针对性地设计出补充检查步骤，确保观测数据质量控制判别过程的高可信度；2）由于各类观测系统输出资料的属性及其误差水平不同，导致对大气状态“真值”的描述存在争议，也正因如此，成熟的气象资料质量控制系统充分利用多来源观测资料或多种观测要素，在遵循统一的大气运动物理规律前提下进行相互校验，形成了综合质量控制；3）随着数值预报的发展，欧美各国均在同化系统中对常规资料进行变分质量控制，例如ECMWF于2014年完成变分质量控制算法升级, 提高了极端天气事件的分析和预报能力；4）我国资料处理业务系统已实现了从传统的“非实时质控+人工审核”向“实时资料质量控制、评估和反馈”转变。随着常规资料质量控制业务的日趋成熟，未来发展应聚焦构建多源资料交互验证的综合质量控制与评估平台，集成应用国际上先进的质量控制算法，实现资料同化前的统计质控与同化阶段变分质控有机对接。

中文关键词：

常规资料，观测误差，质量控制，资料同化

KeyWords：

conventional observations, observation error, quality control, data assimilation

Abstract：

Quality control is an important technique approach of meteorological observation data quality management, and is prerequisite to assure credible observation data entering weather forecast and other operation systems. This paper reviews the progress of quality control technique in Euro-American developed countries and the development trends of similar technique in China. Inductive analysis reveals that: (1) the mature quality control techniques systematically and strictly consider the scientific of qualified control algorithms, and the condition of erroneous judgment and omission in the whole algorithms or single check step. The impact assessment of erroneous judgment and omission ensures high credibility of the quality control process. (2) Due to the difference of property and error levels in different types of observation data, the description about the truth-value of atmosphere observation is remained in controversy. So, the mature quality control systems of meteorological observation data use the complex uality control, which take full advantage of observation data and from multiple observation systems. The crosschecking of observation is based upon the premise that atmospheric motion should obey the physical laws. (3) ECMWF, NCEP and other numerical weather predicont centers use variational quality control (VarQC) in data assimilation process. ECMWF updated VarQC in 2014, they use a Huber norm distribution to describe most innovation statistics after discarding systematically erroneous observations and deserve the credit for improved analyses and forecasts of extreme events. (4) The quality control operation in China has changed from the traditional not-real time quality control and manual review into the real-time quality control, evaluation and feedback. As quality control operational system matures, the emphasis of future technique development should focus on developing a quality control and evaluation operation platform for cross-checking of multiple-sources data, and should integrate applications of intrnational advanced technology to realize ultimately the combination of statistically quality controls before data assimilation and variational quality control in the phase of assimilation.