华东区域数值预报系统对极端降水预报能力的评估
Verification of the Extreme Precipitation Forecast from SMS-WARMSV2.0
中文摘要：
对S M S - W A R M S V 2 . 0 业务系统、欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式（ E C 模式） 及全球预报系统模式（GFS模式）2016年1—12月降水预报结果进行统计检验，并对2016年我国多个极端降水案例进行对比检验。结果表明: 技巧评分（TS）、公平技巧评分（ET S）、真实技巧评分（TSS）和击中率（PODY）多种统计检验指标证实华东区域数值预报系统对小雨、暴雨和大暴雨的预报技巧优于E C和G FS全球模式，在暴雨以上量级优势更为显著。多个极端降水案例检验表明，区域模式相对于全球模式对极端降水具备更强的预报能力。
中文关键词：
SMS-WARMSV2.0，极端降水，评估
KeyWords：
numerical forecast, precipitation, evaluation
Abstract：
The precipitation forecasts from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), The Global Forecast System (GFS), and Shanghai Meteorological Service WRF ADAS Real-Time Modeling System 2 (SMS-WARMSV2.0)models were compared by using statistical verification methods for year 2016. In addition to routine daily evaluation, some extreme rainfall events were also included in the comparisons. O multiple statistical scores of the ETS, TS, TSS, and PODY, the SMS-WARMSV2.0 shows better skill in the prediction of light and heavy rainfalls compared to ECMWF and GFS. The advantage of SMS-WARMSV2.0 over other two global models is especially true for heavy and extreme rainfall events. This suggests the regional model has improved skill in the prediction of extreme rainfalls comparing to global models.