延伸期过程预报预测技术及应用
The Extended-Range Process Prediction Technique and Application
中文摘要：
对自主研发的低频图方法和低频波方法、延伸期过程预测客观检验指标（Zs和Cs评分）、月内重要过程与趋势预测系统（MAPFS 2.1）及其推广应用情况做了介绍。对近4年（2013—2016年）上海地区汛期延伸期强降水过程业务预测和近2年（2015—2016年）冬季延伸期强降温过程业务预测进行了客观检验。结果显示，汛期强降水过程、冬半年强降温过程（强冷空气过程）预测准确率分别为67.3%和43.2%，Zs/Cs评分分别为0.153/0.130、0.139/0.09。低频图方法对各年汛期最强降水过程均给出了较好的预测，说明预测方法具有一定的预测潜力。基于MJO（Madden-Julian Oscillation）活动的上海汛期逐候降水趋势预测方法2年（2014—2015年）的预测结果Ps评分平均达到58分，为汛期延伸期强降水过程预测和入梅、出梅延伸期预测提供了较有价值的预测背景信息。
中文关键词：
延伸期过程预测，低频图预测方法，低频波预测方法，延伸期过程预测客观检验指标，MAPFS系统
KeyWords：
extend-range weather process prediction, method of low-frequency synoptic weather map, method of Low-frequency wave in key region, skill score of extend-range weather process forecast, MAPFS system
Abstract：
This paper introduces the Method on Low-Frequency Synoptic Weather Map and on low-frequency wave in key region, the verifying indices for extended-range weather process forecast ,the related operational system(MAPFS 2.1) and their promotional application, and further works for verifying of the heavy rainfall processes during flood seasons in 2013-2016 and the heavy cooling processes (cold air processes) during winters in 2015-2016.The results indicate that the accuracy rate of the heavy rainfall process forecasts and of the strong cooling process forecasts were about percent of 67.3 and 43.2 respectively, and correspondingly their scores of Zs and Cs reached 0.153/0.130 and 0.139/0.09 in turn. The Low-frequency synoptic weather map method accurately forecasted the heaviest precipitation process for each year in 2013-2016. This suggested that the approaches have the advantage for predicting the extended-range weather process indeed and have tremendous room for improvement. The MJO-activity -depending approach of the pentad precipitation anomaly over Shanghai during flood seasons made a delightful encouraging performance for 2014-2015 with Ps score of 58 and supplied the valuable predicting background in determination of extended-range weather process and the beginning and the end of Meiyu rain.