高速公路低能见度危险性评价方法比较
Comparison Among Three Assessment Methods for Low Visibility Hazards on Highway
中文摘要：
利用1980—2014年全国能见度定时观测资料，分别选择熵权法、等级赋值法和专家打分法三个方案，建立我国高速公路路网的低能见度危险性评价模型，并分析各方案高速公路低能见度危险性评价结果的合理性。分析结果表明，1）客观评价方案（熵权法）和半客观评价方案（等级赋值法）的危险性评价结果能更为准确、合理地反映我国低能见度灾害分布情况，均优于主观评价方案（专家打分法）的结果；且专家打分法方案结果在局部区域的合理性较差。2）选择分等级低能见度出现频率作为危险性评价指标，考虑了低能见度对高速公路交通的影响程度，其评价结果更为合理。
中文关键词：
高速公路，低能见度，危险性，熵权法，等级赋值法，专家打分法
KeyWords：
highway, low visibility, hazard, entropy weight method, ranking evaluation method, expert scoring method
Abstract：
Based on the visibility observation data at meteorological stations in China during 1980-2014, three assessment methods were compared for low visibility hazard model on Highways in China. The analytical results indicate that the model output from the entropy weight method can reflect the distribution of low visibility disaster in China, and is the best one. The entropy weight method and ranking evaluation method were better than the expert scoring method. What’s more, we found that the evaluation result was more reasonable when the occurring frequency of low visibility events was divided into grads to be the hazard evaluation index.