高速公路降雨致灾风险预警技术应用进展
Advances in Application of Early Warning of Risks to Precipitation Induced Transport Disasters on Freeway
中文摘要：
利用全国高分辨率定量降水预报（QPF）定量评估降雨对高速公路的危险性，结合承灾体的脆弱性和暴露性、公路附近的环境敏感性以及当地防灾减灾能力，研究高速公路降雨致灾风险的预报预警方法。借助GIS平台按照层次分析法（AHP）的思路将公路状况、经济水平等社会统计数据及地理信息融合为高速公路降雨易损背景场，藉此将气象要素预报转化为影响预报；降雨对高速公路影响的风险预报被定义为五级预警。以高速公路阻断信息对照预警试验结果，基于本研究搭建的模型对于全国高速公路因降雨阻断的预警效果良好。
中文关键词：
公路交通，降雨，气象灾害预警，AHP，易损背景场
KeyWords：
road transport, precipitation, meteorological disaster warning, AHP, vulnerability metric
Abstract：
By assessing the hazardness resulted from precipitation based on national quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), and estimating the fragility and exposure degree of the freeway, environmental sensitivity of surrounding areas, and capacity of disaster prevention and reduction of the local government, this study proposes a set of specifications on early warning of risks in precipitation induced transport disasters on freeway. The social statistical data including road conditions, economic level and geographic information are integrated into a normalized vulnerability metric, which help convert the rainfall intensity forecast into some impact pre-assessment, i.e. the five levels in early warning of risks. Compared with freeway blockage records, the results from this study are illustrated to be reliable and indicative for the precipitation induced freeway blockages.