细网格数值模式产品在水文气象服务中的应用
Application of Fine-Mesh Grid Numerical Model LSP Products in Hydrometeorological Service
中文摘要：
利用T639、GER和JMA细网格数值预报模式降水产品和汉江上游水文降水资料，应用统计方法建立气象数值预报因子与水文面雨量对应关系，进而得到汉江上游面雨量客观预报模型。结果表明，该方法较客观地反映了流域内降水尤其是致洪暴雨的分布情况，为丹江口水库调蓄调度、防汛抗旱提供科学参考量，是水文与气象信息耦合度量面雨量的有益尝试。
中文关键词：
汉江，数值预报，细网格，面雨量，预报
KeyWords：
Hanjiang River, numerical forecast, fine mesh, surface precipitation, forecast
Abstract：
In this article, we establish a statistical forecast model by using the T639, GER and JMA predicted rainfall products at grids as meteorological factors and the upstream hydrological precipitation data in Hanjiang River basin as the predictor, The test results show that the proposed method may reflect the distribution of the precipitation in the basin objectively, particularly for heavy rains. It may provide a scientific reference for flood control and drought relief at Danjiangkou reservoir storage scheduling,and the technique may be beneficial for similar issues.