热带气旋影响下的深圳港湾码头最大阵风预报方法研究
Forecast of Maximum Wind Gust in Tropical Cyclones for Port Terminals in Shenzhen
中文摘要：
通过分析深圳三个沿海港口码头自动气象站（盐田港、妈湾港、蛇口码头）的瞬时极大风资料与热带气旋的主要特性（即热带气旋强度、热带气旋离气象站的距离、热带气旋相对于气象站的方位角的关系），提供了一个气象站在热带气旋影响下的最大阵风定量预报方法。同时分析了2004—2014年6月的所有距离气象站700km范围内的热带气旋以及3个气象站的同期小时极大风观测。研究结果表明，瞬时极大风具有间歇性，热带气旋对观测站的风力影响受周边环境影响大，越开阔的地域，热带气旋风力影响越大。一般情况下，深圳的3个沿海自动站中盐田港受热带气旋风力影响的程度远大于妈湾港和蛇口码头。当热带气旋靠近华南沿海，热带气旋对东北象限的风影响最大。在此象限中，强热带风暴级别以上的热带气旋引发盐田港瞬时大风的距离可以达到400km以上。热带气旋引发的深圳沿海自动站瞬时极大风（阵风＞17.2m·s-1）统计模型在2014年7月至2016年9月得到了很好的验证。本研究对深圳市气象局针对港口码头抗台防风的精细化预报服务以及全市的台风预警发布提供了有价值的参考。
中文关键词：
热带气旋，阵风，精细化预报，港口码头
KeyWords：
tropical cyclone, wind gust, precision forecast, port and container terminal
Abstract：
This study provides a quantitative forecast method to predict the potential maximum wind gust at three coastal automatic weather stations (Yantian International Container Terminal, Mawan Port and Shekou Ferry Terminal) in Shenzhen based on the investigation of the relationship between the wind gusts observed at the stations and tropical cyclones’ (TCs’) main characteristics, i.e.,TC intensity, TC distance to the station and TC’s azimuth relative to the station. The Historical data of TCs within the distance of 700 km to these AWSs, and the hourly maximum wind gusts at these stations at the same time are analyzed for 2004 to June 2014. Results show that the wind induced by TCs is intermittent. The wind induced by offshore TCs is strongly affected by the surrounding terrain condition of the stations. Generally, coastal stations face to the wind direction suffers more from wind influence than those stations back to the wind direction. The wind gust induced by TCs is bigger at Yantian international container rminother two coastal stations. When TCs are approaching to the coast in South China, the most dangers are in the Northeast quadrant of TCs. In this quadrant,TCs with higher intensity in severe tropical storm might incur gust gale (wind gust >17.2m·s-1) at Yantian international container terminal even with a distance more than 400 km to the stations. Finally, the statistical scheme was tested and it works well to forecast wind gusts induced by TCs at those stations for the period from July 2014 to September 2016. It is a valuable tool to forecast the wind gust more precisely for these port terminals, and may serve to the city’s typhoon warnings.