全国80cm地温分布特征和基于太阳辐射的预测方法
Distribution Features of Earth Temperature at 80 cm in China and Prediction Method Based on the Factor of Solar Radiation
中文摘要：
利用2001—2010年全国80cm层的逐日平均地温资料，分析了全国地温的时空分布规律；同时结合太阳辐射资料，分析太阳辐射和地温的相关性；将太阳辐射作为预报因子，构建地温预报模型。结果表明，各海拔高度的地温呈现相同的季节变化，在夏季达到波峰，春季降到波谷，并且多年演变趋势呈现上升趋势；经30日滑动平均处理后太阳辐射与滞后60日的地温相关性较好，以此构建的地温预报模型能够较好地预报出地温的周期波动性，并且预报准确率较高。
中文关键词：
80cm地温、太阳辐射、预报模型、滑动平均
KeyWords：
80 cm earth temperature, solar radiation, prediction model, moving average
Abstract：
Temporal and spatial distribution of earth temperature in China was analyzed based on the daily mean earth temperature at 80cm for 2001-2010. Meanwhile, the correlation of earth temperature with solar radiation was analyzed; the earth temperature prediction model was constructed by taking solar radiation as the predictor. The results show that earth temperature presents similarly seasonal variation in various depths, and reaches a ridge in summer then dropped to trough in the next spring. The long-term evolution demonstrated a rising tendency. We found that the correlation of the 60-day lagged earth temperature to the solar radiation become better after a 30-day moving average on each of the two series. Then, we constructed a prediction model to forecast the periodic fluctuation of the earth temperature, and got a higher accuracy. Thus this model may be applied in the future.