基于MaxEnt的华山松大小蠹在中国潜在分布区预测
Potential Geographical Distribution of Dendroctonus armandi in China Based on the MaxEnt Prediction
中文摘要：
华山松大小蠹是华山松的毁灭性害虫，明确华山松大小蠹在中国的潜在分布对有效控制其扩散蔓延有重要的指导意义。基于最大熵算法的生态位模型MaxEnt和地理信息系统软件DIVA-GIS对华山松大小蠹进行适生区分析及预测，用受试者工作特征曲线对预测模型和结果进行评估，用Jackknife法分析影响华山松大小蠹分布的重要因子。结果表明，华山松大小蠹在我国适生范围比较集中，高风险区主要分布在陕西南部、四川东北部和甘肃东南部三省交界地区。确定了影响华山松大小蠹分布的主导气候因子，即最干季度平均温度、最暖季度降水量、降水量变异系数、温度季节性变化标准差和最冷季度降水量。分析了主导气候因子与该虫分布概率的关系，并对下一步的工作思路进行了介绍。
中文关键词：
华山松大小蠹，MaxEnt，适生性分析，影响因子
KeyWords：
Dendroctonus armandi, MaxEnt, suitability analysis, environmental factors
Abstract：
Dendroctonus armandi is a destructive insect of Pinus armandi, it caused serious economic losses annually to the forest industry in China. Determination of the potential geographical distribution of Dendroctonus armandi is an important factor for effectively controlling the spread of this pest. In this study, the niche model MaxEnt and Diva-gis were employed to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area of Dendroctonus armandi, the ROC was used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results, and the Jackknife analysis was adopted to analyze the most important environmental factors that affect the occurrence of Dendroctonus armandi. The results show that Dendroctonus armandi had a concentrated distribution regions: thesouth of the Shaanxi Province, the northeast of the Sichuan Province and the southeastern Gansu Province. Four dominant climatic factors controlling Dendroctonus armandi distribution were determined, including the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, the precipitation seasonality, the temperature seasonality and the precipitation in the coldest quarter. Here, we analyze the relationship between dominant climatic factors and the probability of the pest presences, and suggest a thinking way for the further research.