热带大西洋暖海温促使拉尼娜事件发生的可能性研究
A Possibility of the Warm Sea Surface Temperature in Tropical Atlantic to Promote La Niña Events
中文摘要：
首先，通过对多年冬、春季节热带大西洋海温、夏季大气季节内振荡（MJO）异常活动特征和冬季太平洋ENSO之间的分析研究，发现三者之间存在显著的相关关系。其次，1951年以来最强的两次厄尔尼诺年（1982和1997年）后都跟随着拉尼娜年。因此对1983、1998和2016年大西洋春季海温及MJO信号进行的分析和比较表明，2016年初大西洋关键区海温异常偏暖，与1998年情况较为类似。2016年夏季，MJO可能出现在印度洋异常活跃的情况，并可能导致热带太平洋秋、冬季节出现中等强度的拉尼娜事件。
中文关键词：
大西洋海温，MJO持续异常，拉尼娜事件，ENSO
KeyWords：
Atlantic SST, persistent anomaly of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), La Niña event, El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)
Abstract：
First of all, we did find that there are obvious correlations among the Atlantic SST in spring, the MJO anomalies in summer and the Pacific ENSO in winter. Secondly, two La Ni?a events respectively followed the top 2 powerful El Ni?o events in 1982 and 1997 after 1951. Thirdly a super strong El Ni?o event appeared in 2015. In this paper, the characteristics of the spring Atlantic SST and the summer MJO signals in 1983, 1998 and 2016 are compared. Then the changes of SST in autumn and winter 2016 are forecasted. The results show that the SST in defined key area of Atlantic occurred an abnormal warmer status in spring 2016, and was similar to that in 1998; the MJO may likely be abnormally active in Indian Ocean in summer 2016, in a much greater extent. These mean that a moderate La Ni?a event in tropical Pacific will probably occur in the autumn and winter 2016.