气象灾害间接经济损失内涵、发生机理与评估方法
On the Concept, Mechanic and Models for Estimating Indirect Economic Loss Resulted from Meteorological Catastrophes
中文摘要：
气象灾害对经济系统造成巨大损失，其中在总损失中占极大份额的间接经济损失，因其复杂性和隐蔽性经常被人们忽视，也往往使灾害管理决策出现偏差。灾害损失评估必须加强间接经济损失研究，灾害间接经济损失主要指产业关联损失，灾害间接损失的发生机制包括了生产和消费传导、价格变化和替代性调整等四大机制，投入产出和一般均衡模型是间接经济损失评估的有效和主要方法，但做间接经济损失评估时需进行适应性改进。
中文关键词：
气象灾害，间接经济损失，投入产出模型，可计算一般均衡模型
KeyWords：
meteorological catastrophe, indirect economic loss, input-output (I-O) Model, computable general equilibrium (CGE).
Abstract：
Meteorological disasters trigger enormous damages on the economic system, of which the destructiveness is usually ignored as it is potential and tricky. It leads errors in the administrative decision, because the omission of indirect disaster loss is ofen in large proportion. The authors suggest that the industry interdependent loss is the core of indirect economic loss, which is explored based on a proposed conceptual model. The indirect economic loss is influenced by following four mechanisms: demand fluctuation, supply regulation, price change and substitution functions in economic system. Input-output (I-O) model and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model are the appropriate approaches for evaluating indirect economic loss resulted from the extreme meteorological disaster on condition that the flexibility is attached to I-0 models and the substitution elasticity is reduced in CGEs.