风电功率预报技术研究综述
Review of the Research for Wind Power Prediction
中文摘要：
从20世纪中后期开始，丹麦等多个西方国家已经展开对风电功率预测的研究，而我国在该领域的研究开展得比较晚。在很长一段时间内，各国风电场均采用单一的预测方法进行风电功率预测，基本能够满足风电场及整个电力系统的
需求。但是，随着风电产业的飞速发展，市场竞争越来越激烈，传统单一的预报方法逐渐不能满足需求，而集合预报在很大程度上能够解决这一问题。传统单一的方法所能做到的准确率已经达到比较高的水平，提升空间不大，集合各单一方法的优点能大大提升预测准确率。本文主要综合阐述各种传统预测方法，并结合各国的试验对比分析对集合预报作简要说明。
需求。但是，随着风电产业的飞速发展，市场竞争越来越激烈，传统单一的预报方法逐渐不能满足需求，而集合预报在很大程度上能够解决这一问题。传统单一的方法所能做到的准确率已经达到比较高的水平，提升空间不大，集合各单一方法的优点能大大提升预测准确率。本文主要综合阐述各种传统预测方法，并结合各国的试验对比分析对集合预报作简要说明。
中文关键词：
风电功率，预测方法，传统，集合预报
KeyWords：
wind power, prediction methods, tradition, ensemble forecast
Abstract：
Since the mid of 20th century, Denmark and other Western countries have started the research of wind power forecast,from a single method to ensemble methods, while it started relatively late in our country. Over a very long period of time, the wind farms around the world have been using a single method to forecast wind power and have basically met the wind farm and the whole power system requirements. But, with the rapid development of wind power industry, the increasingly fierce market competition, the traditional single method wouldn’t meet the needs of the future of wind power, while the ensemble forecast can solve this problem to a large extent. The accuracy rate of the traditional single method has reached a relatively high level and it is hard to getting higher level. Assembling the advantages of each method, the new way can greatly enhance the accuracy rate of prediction. This paper mainly focuses on the various traditional forecasting methods, which are expounded comprehensively. Combined with the analysis of
experimental comparison of countries, the ensemble prediction is briefly explained.
experimental comparison of countries, the ensemble prediction is briefly explained.