热带气旋集合预报技术的应用情况简介
A Review on Applications of Tropical Cyclones Ensemble Prediction Technologies
中文摘要：
数值集合预报技术的不断改进和升级促进了热带气旋集合预报技术的发展和应用，热带气旋集合预报在日常业务中发挥着越来越重要的作用。概述了ECMWF、NCEP、JMA和CMA等全球主要数值预报中心的热带气旋集合预报技术，总结了当前热带气旋集合预报产品在路径、强度、风雨及生成预报等方面的应用，对未来热带气旋集合预报的发展和应用进行了展望。
中文关键词：
热带气旋，集合预报，路径预报
KeyWords：
tropical cyclone, numerical ensemble prediction, track forecast
Abstract：
The development and advancement of numerical ensemble prediction technologies have improved tropical cyclone (TC) ensemble forecasts and their applications. TC ensemble forecast has played a more and more important role in TC routine operations. This paper summarizes the TC ensemble prediction systems of ECMWF, NCEP, JMA AND CMA, overviews the applications of TC ensemble prediction on TC’ track, intensity, precipitation and genesis forecasts etc., and looks into the future development and application of TC ensemble predictions.