中国近百年地面温度变化自然因子的因果链分析
The Causal Chain Analysis of Natural Factors for China Surface Temperature Variation during the Recent 100 Years
中文摘要：
采用格兰杰（Granger）因果检验法，从自然因素的角度，即从天文因子（太阳黑子数SSN）和地球运动因子（地极移动X方向和Y方向）的角度，对我国近百年地面温度（TC）的变化进行了归因分析。所得结果如下：滞后1～11年内， SSN都不是TC的Granger原因；对于TC和极移X方向，当滞后6年时信度最高，此时极移X方向是TC的Granger原因（87%信度）。研究结果可能暗示，极移X方向的变化可能会导致6年后中国地面气温的变化。
中文关键词：
天文因子，地球运动因子，气候变化归因，中国地面温度
KeyWords：
astronomical factor, earth movement factor, the attribution of climate change, China surface temperature
Abstract：
The attribution analysis of China surface temperature(TC) in the recent 100 years is done from the angle of the astronomical factor(sunspot number, SSN) and the earth movement factor(polar shift x direction and y direction ) by using Granger causality test. The results are as follows: (1) SSN is not the Granger cause of TC in all of 1 to 11 years lags; (2) when the lag is 6 years, confidence is the highest, at this time polar shift x direction is the Granger cause of TC (87% confidence); (3) when the lag is 12 years, TC is the Granger cause of the polar shift y direction, the confidence is 86%. The research results of the paper suggest that the change of polar shift x direction possibly results in the change of TC, and the change of TC possibly influences the change of the polar shift y direction.