我国台风业务现状及其关键技术
The Current Status and Future Development of China Operational Typhoon Forecasting and Its Key Technologies
中文摘要：
近20年来，随着气象观测技术的发展、计算机性能的提高以及数值预报模式的改进和升级，尤其是资料同化技术的发展应用等，数值模式的准确性越来越高，预报时效越来越长，预报指导产品也越来越丰富，我国台风业务预报也因而得到了快速发展。近5年（2007—2011年）中央气象台24，48，72h台风路径预报误差平均值分别为114，190，287km，预报准确率较20年前皆有了明显提高。虽然台风路径预报取得了长足进步，但台风强度预报进展依然不大，台风数值预报的核心技术与国际先进水平相比还有不小差距，台风精细化风雨预报能力尚不能满足国家防台减灾的实际需求。回顾了国内外近20年、尤其是21世纪十余年来台风业务取得的主要进展、关键技术以及存在的不足，并对今后我国台风业务发展进行了展望。
中文关键词：
台风，业务预报，关键技术
KeyWords：
typhoon, operational forecast, key technologies
Abstract：
Due to the improvement in weather observation methods, numerical weather models, data assimilation technique and computation capability, in the past 20 years, numerical weather prediction (NWP) has greatly improved both in model performance such as model accuracy and valid time with increasing model productions. The NWP has effectively boosted the development of typhoon forecast in China. In the past 5 years (2007—2011), the mean typhoon track forecast errors in the National Meteorological Center (CMA) are 114 km, 190 km and 287 km for 24 hour, 48 hour and 72 hour forecasts, respectively. Now the 24 hour track forecast error is 100 km less than that 20 years ago. The capability of 48-hour/72-hour track forecast is respectively equivalent to that of 24-hour/48-hour track forecast 20 years ago. Although there is great improvement in typhoon track forecast, the intensity forecast still has no obvious improvement. Our core technology of numerical weather models still falls behind the international advanced technology, and the forecast capability still cannot meet the needs for typhoon disaster prevention and reduction. In this article, the main approach, key technology and shortage of typhoon forecast in the last 20 years especially after 21st century both at home and abroad are reviewed. Also the prospect of typhoon forecast in the coming 5~10 years is discussed.