季节气候预测的进展和前景
Progress and Prospects of Seasonal Climate Prediction
中文摘要：
对季节气候预测的进展进行了评述，主要集中在动力季节预测方面。全文共分四部分：(1) 季节预报的科学基础；(2) 动力（GCM）季节预报的进展；(3) 东亚季节预报水平低的原因分析； (4) 从国际气候预测未来发展规划国家气候中心气候预测的前景。根据上述结果，最后提出了中国气象局季节预测发展的建议。
中文关键词：
季节气候，预测，进展
KeyWords：
seasonal climate, prediction, progress
Abstract：
The present paper has reviewed the recent progress of the seasonal climate prediction, with a special emphasis on the aspect of dynamic seasonal prediction. It consists of four parts: (1) the scientific basis of the seasonal prediction; (2) the state of the art of the dynamical seasonal prediction; (3) analysis of the skill of the dynamical seasonal prediction; and (4) future development and prospect of the seasonal climate prediction. Based on the above results, the suggestions and recommendations have been put forward of the development and future planning of the seasonal prediction for China Meteorological Administration.