Lorenz混沌吸引子发现的方法论分析
Assessing the Methodology for Finding Lorenz Chaos Attractor
中文摘要：
简要回顾了20世纪中叶气象学家洛伦茨（E. N. Lorenz）研究混沌现象的历程，梳理其中主要事件及其发生脉络，剖析他的研究思路和科学方法特点，绘制出他研究发现的技术路线图，分析了科学方法论在其中的作用和意义。结果显示，他发现的技术路线遵循科学方法论原则，以质疑为起点，经过猜想提出假设，依靠数学物理建模，最终用数值试验方法证实了猜想。其中简化与抽象的还原论思想贯穿始终。他的发现既有必然性，也有偶然性，体现了科学研究中偶然性与必然性的辩证关系，可以作为方法论研究的一个范例，对此深入剖析有助于大气科学的创新研究。
中文关键词：
创新，方法论，Lorenz混沌吸引子，可预报性，技术路线图
KeyWords：
innovation, methodology, Lorenz chaos abstractor, predictability, technology roadmap
Abstract：
A first chaos attractor was found in Lorenz’s study at the beginning of 1960s. This paper tries to make an analysis on the methods used in his innovation. At first, we briefly reviewed the story of his study and then followed the major events which occurred afterwards and methods used in his study, and finally drew a technology roadmap for his innovation journey. It turns out that his technology road fits the philosophy of general methodology in scientific community, of which simplification or abstraction、is the dominant method resulting from reductionism. He started from a question about the predictability of linear regression equation in weather forecasting and then developed a simplified model based on mathematics and physics. The numerical solution of the model shows to be irregular, with which he proved his suspicion. This case also shows the importance of the chanciness in connection with inevitability on dialecticism for the innovation and can be regarded as a classical one for methodology study. The insight of the case is evidently helpful to innovation in atmospheric sciences.