气候变化对农业生产的影响及其适应
Climate Change Affects Crop Production and Its Adaptation
中文摘要：
基于国内有关研究，综述了气候变化对我国农业气候资源和农作物种植结构影响的观测事实，分析了气候变化中农业气象灾害时间变化趋势，评述了未来气候变化对农作物生产的可能影响和适应策略。得出：（1）中国大陆（西南地区除外）光温生产潜力呈明显增长趋势，其中北方增幅大于南方，气候变化对不同地区的不同作物的生产潜力影响不同。（2）气温升高增加了各地的农业热量资源，促进了复种指数增加和农业气候带向北向西推移，喜温作物播种面积比例增加；同时我国北方干暖化趋势，南方洪涝灾害频发，也引起不同地区的种植制度发生变化。（3）气候变化背景下，我国近50年来因气象灾害导致的农业受灾面积不断扩大，农业经济损失逐年升高，同时极端气候事件发生的频率和强度在加大，增加了农业生产的风险。（4）未来气候变化对我国农业生产有利有弊，气候变暖将导致适宜作物种植和多熟种植的北界都将北移，作物布局和品种熟制也将发生变化；同时气候变化可能导致未来气象灾害更加频繁，农业生产的不稳定性增加。（5）基于已有的科学认识，提出了优化我国农业种植制度、调整作物种植结构、加强农业基础设施建设和选育抗逆品种等农业适应气候变化策略。
中文关键词：
气候变化，气候变暖，农业气象灾害，极端气候事件，适应
KeyWords：
climate change, global warming, agricultural meteorological disasters, extreme weather events, adaptation
Abstract：
Based on relevant domestic research, the paper gives an overview of the observed facts of climate change impacting on agro-climatic resources and crop planting structure, the detected trends in frequency and intensity of agro-meteorological disasters, and the potential impacts and adaptation strategies for the future of climate change on crop production. It shows that:(1) Light and temperature productivity have an increasing trend on China's mainland (except southwest). They tend to increase to a greater degree in the north of China than the south of China. Climate change has different roles on potential productivity among different crops or in different regions of China. (2) Higher temperature increases the heat resource for crop growth, enhances the multiple cropping index, pushes the agro-climatic zone northward and westward, and increases the proportion of thermophilic crops’ sown areas. The dry warming trend in northern China and southern flood disasters have also resulted in the change of the cropping system to some extent. (3) The meteorological disasters expand agricultural disaster areas which have led to increasing agricultural economic losses year by year in China in the recent 50 years. They increase the risk of crop production with the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. (4) They would have pros and cons of the future climate change impact on China's crop production. Warming will lead to the northern boundary of multi-cropping northward, and induce the change of crop varieties and cropping layout. Weather disasters will be more and more frequent in future, which would increase the instability of crop production. (5) Based on the existing scientific knowledge, strategies for crop plant adaptation to climate change are proposed, optimizing our farming system, crop planting structure adjustment, strengthening the crop plant infrastructure, as well as cultivating new stress-resistant crop varieties.