Strong Agricultural Resilience to 2022 Southern China Drought
农业对2022年中国南方干旱的强大适应能力
The 2015 Paris Agreement outlined limiting global warming to 1.5°C relative to the preindustrial levels, necessitating the development of regional climate adaptation strategies. This requires a comprehensive understanding of how the 1.5°C rise in global temperature would translate across different regions. However, its implications on critical agricultural components, particularly blue and green water, remains understudied. This study investigates these changes using a rice-growing semiarid region in central India. The aim of this study is to initiate a discussion on the regional response of blue–green water at specific warming levels. Using different global climate models (GCMs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), the study estimated the time frame for reaching the 1.5°C warming level and subsequently investigated changes in regional precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, and blue–green water. The results reveal projected reductions in precipitation and surface runoff by approximately 5%–15% and 10%–35%, respectively, along with decrease in green and blue water by approximately 12%–1% and 40%–10%, respectively, across different GCMs and SSPs. These findings highlight 1) the susceptibility of blue–green water to the 1.5°C global warming level, 2) the narrow time frame available for the region to develop the adaptive strategies, 3) the influence of warm semiarid climate on the blue–green water dynamics, and 4) the uncertainty associated with regional assessment of a specific warming level. This study provides new insights for shaping food security strategies over highly vulnerable semiarid regions and is expected to serve as a reference for other regional blue/green water assessment studies.
近日，Wiley出版社旗下的刊物《地球的未来》（Earth's Future）刊载了题为："农业对2022年中国南方干旱的强大适应力（Strong Agricultural Resilience to 2022 Southern China Drought）"的一篇文章。研究人员基于弹性系数模型，以作物叶面积指数（Leaf Area Index , LAI）作为评价农作物生态系统适应力的量化指标，分析了2022年特大干旱期间，降水、辐射等气象因素，以及灌溉等人类活动对中国长江流域（the Yangtze River Basin, YRB）种植的玉米、小麦、水稻等农作物的生态适应力的影响。研究指出，气候和灌溉都显著影响长江流域农作物叶面积指数（LAI）的变化，其中水稻的LAI主要与灌溉有关，而玉米和小麦的LAI主要与降水和辐射有关。LAI变化的主要驱动因素在不同作物之间有所不同，但灌溉对LAI的影响日益凸显。在研究2022年异常干旱年份的作物产量数据时发现，尽管长江流域经历了自1961年以来最严重的干旱，但作物产量没有大幅下降，许多种植晚稻的地区的产量甚至有所增加。通过对2022年晚稻LAI变化的主要驱动因素进行归因分析时发现，2022年晚稻产量的回升在很大程度上可以归因于人为的灌溉干预。
研究人员强调，全面了解自然气候条件、人为影响和农业恢复力之间的相互作用，对于塑造可持续农业的未来至关重要。由于自然和人为因素对农业恢复力影响的复杂性以及本研究的局限性，未来的研究工作应集中在更深入地探索主要农作物对气候变化的适应。这涉及到研究不同农作物品种对温度波动、降水模式变化和整体气候变化的响应性。
