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1.5°C全球变暖情景下蓝-绿水可用性的区域尺度异质性评估(2024-4-19)

发布时间:2024-04-22 打印

Assessing Regional-Scale Heterogeneity in Blue–Green Water Availability under the 1.5°C Global Warming Scenario
  1.5°C全球变暖情景下蓝-绿水可用性的区域尺度异质性评估
  
  The 2015 Paris Agreement outlined limiting global warming to 1.5°C relative to the preindustrial levels, necessitating the development of regional climate adaptation strategies. This requires a comprehensive understanding of how the 1.5°C rise in global temperature would translate across different regions. However, its implications on critical agricultural components, particularly blue and green water, remains understudied. This study investigates these changes using a rice-growing semiarid region in central India. The aim of this study is to initiate a discussion on the regional response of blue–green water at specific warming levels. Using different global climate models (GCMs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), the study estimated the time frame for reaching the 1.5°C warming level and subsequently investigated changes in regional precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, and blue–green water. The results reveal projected reductions in precipitation and surface runoff by approximately 5%–15% and 10%–35%, respectively, along with decrease in green and blue water by approximately 12%–1% and 40%–10%, respectively, across different GCMs and SSPs. These findings highlight 1) the susceptibility of blue–green water to the 1.5°C global warming level, 2) the narrow time frame available for the region to develop the adaptive strategies, 3) the influence of warm semiarid climate on the blue–green water dynamics, and 4) the uncertainty associated with regional assessment of a specific warming level. This study provides new insights for shaping food security strategies over highly vulnerable semiarid regions and is expected to serve as a reference for other regional blue/green water assessment studies.
  
  2015年《巴黎协定》提出了将全球变暖限制在相对于工业化前水平1.5°C的目标,制定区域气候适应战略,全面了解全球温度上升1.5°C将如何在不同地区转化是必需的。
  然而,在农业部分,特别是区域气候适应战略对蓝水和绿水的影响仍未得到充分研究。本研究利用印度中部的一个种植水稻半干旱地区来分析这些变化。目的是探讨特定变暖水平下蓝-绿水的区域响应。利用不同的全球气候模型(GCMs)和共享社会经济路径(ssp),本研究估计了达到1.5°C变暖水平的时间,并研究了该区域降水、温度、地表径流和蓝-绿水随之发生的变化。
  
  结果显示,在不同的GCM和SSP中,预计降水和地表径流分别减少约5%-15%和10%-35%,绿水和蓝水分别减少约12%-1%和40%-10%。这些结果强调了
  1)蓝绿水对1.5°C全球变暖水平的敏感性
  2)该地区制定的气候适应策略可用时间范围较低
  3)温暖的半干旱气候对蓝-绿水动态的影响
  4)特定变暖水平区域评估的不确定性。
  该研究为在高度脆弱的半干旱地区制定粮食安全战略提供了新的观点思路,并有望为其他区域蓝/绿水评估研究提供参考。

 

延伸阅读:DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0083.1(马杰编译)
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